Syllabus MATH 351-01 Introduction to Probability and Statistics II

Section 01: MWF 11 - 11.50am

Holt 291

Contact Information

Edward A. Roualdes (call me Edward)

Email: eroualdes@csuchico.edu

Office hours:

M 2 - 3pm and Th 10 - 11am in Holt 204
W 12 - 1pm in ~~Selvester's Cafe (SELV) 100~~ Meriam Library's Innovation Lab
If none of the above times work for you, please email me so we can find a time that works for us both.

Course Description

Basic concepts of probability theory, random variables and their distributions, limit theorems, sampling theory, topics in statistical inference, regression, and correlation.

Student Learning Objectives / Goals

Introduce the language of statistics
Build understanding of random variables and their distributions
Learn how probability connects to statistics, and statistics connects to data
Introduce properties of statistics and sampling distributions

Resources

We will primarily use various chapters from Probability and Statistics - The Science of Uncertainty, Second Edition. This book is freely available as a PDF online, at the link above, hosted by the second author, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal.

We will also draw material from Wikipedia.

If you would like to buy a book, please consider any one of the following:

Additional Requirements

Access to a laptop will be essential to master the material of this course. If you don’t have immediate and consistent access to a laptop, please speak to me as soon as possible.
We will learn to code in Python using Google Colab notebooks, which is freely available with your campus affiliated Google account: username@mail.csuchico.edu. You can use your own Python environment, if you choose, but if you do not have a working Python environment (which is factually different from your OSes Python environment), you should use Google Colab.

Content Delivery

Lectures are in person at the times listed above. No recordings will be available. As Gil Scott-Heron says, the revolution will not be televised; this class will be live. Or maybe you prefer it's all the way live.

All course materials will be posted to my website: roualdes.us/math351.

Course Communication

The absolute best place to ask a question is during lecture. I understand, though, that not all students feel comfortable asking questions publicly.

If you prefer more private and in person communication, come to office hours.

If you prefer written and identifiable communication, email me at eroualdes@csuchico.edu. If your questions become too complex for email, as judged by me, I reserve the right to ask you to come visit my office to receive your answers in person.

If for any reason I need to address everyone in the course, I will send you an email to your student email account, eg you@csuchico.edu.

Course Grading

Your final grade for this course will be given according to the +/- grading systems, based on the following percentages and scale: 90 to 100, A; 80 to <90, B; 70 to <80, C; 60 to <70, D; <60, F.

Component	Percentage
Homework	100%

Grades will be posted to a shared (between me and each of you, individually and exclusively) Google Sheets file. Access is only granted to your@mail.csuchico.edu account.

Homework

All homework must be created using Google Colab notebooks, which are then to be shared with me, and linked to within a shared Google sheets file that only you (individually) and I will have access to.

Homework will be part in class and at home. I intend for the majority of homework to be completed in class, but I can not guarantee you won't have to finish some homework up outside of class. This is part of the reason that access to a laptop is essential to this course.

You can re-submit a homework that was previously submit on time after it was graded for up to 50% of your missed points back. Think of this as an attempt to correct some of your less-than-correct solutions. As an example, if you earned 80% on a Homework, you can re-submit this Homework with updated answers for a maximum of 10% added to your original score. Thus, you could obtain 90% on a homework for which you originally earned 80%.

Late homework assignments will generally not be accepted, but of course extenuating circumstances can change this. Please speak to me as soon as possible.

Tests

There will be zero tests.

Make-up Policy

Homework can be submit late for a maximum of 50% credit. You can submit a homework as late up until the last day of the regular semester, May 10 at 11:59pm.

You can not re-submit a submit-late Homework, since late Homework will not be accepted.

Diversity Policy

Respect: Students in this class are encouraged to speak up and participate during class meetings. Because the class will represent a diversity of individual beliefs, backgrounds, and experiences, every member of this class must show respect for every other member of this class (this includes me).

Academic Integrity Policy

Students are permitted and encouraged to collaborate on all assignments other than quizzes and tests. However, each student must turn in their own work. Further, it is the expressed expectation of this instructor that all students demonstrate integrity and individual responsibility in all actions related to this course. Unethical behavior of any kind is unacceptable and will be prosecuted vigorously. Any sign of cheating in any way on any course assignment will be addressed directly, according to University standards. If you do not understand what plagiarism is, or what cheating entails, you must seek information regarding this matter from the current University Catalog and from me. The consequences of plagiarism begin with a failing grade on the work, and possibly a failing grade in the course, depending upon University action. More information is found on the Student Rights And Responsibilities campus webpage.

Disability Support

If you have any disability related needs, please contact Disability Support Service (Colusa Hall 898-5959 or campus information 898-INFO for directions) on campus to obtain the appropriate documentation. Afterwards, email me to identify your needs within the first two weeks of class so that any necessary arrangements can be made.

Confidentiality and Mandatory Reporting

As an instructor, one of my responsibilities is to help create a safe learning environment on our campus. I am required to share information regarding sexual misconduct with the University. Students may speak to someone confidentially by contacting the Counseling and Wellness Center (898-6345) or Safe Place (898-3030). Information on campus reporting obligations and other Title IX related resources are available at www.csuchico.edu/title-ix.

Course Outline

Introduction to Python

Python Numpy Tutorial (with Jupyter and Colab)

Recap MATH 350

random variables
distribution and density functions
means and standard deviations
probability
percentiles

Expectations of the Sample Mean

mean, variance, bias
mean squared error

Central Limit Theorem (for the sample mean)

Normal distribution theory
mathematics
simulations

Inference

likelihood
Bayesian

Linear Models

single mean model
multiple mean model
linear regression
bootstrap
K-fold cross validation